Kendyl's Open House

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One of the very best parts of my job is meeting people that I would never encounter in a more mundane life.

For example, I got to sell the house of a an incredible woman who helped get AOL off the ground, studied at the Cordon Bleu in France, has a black belt in Tai Kwon Do and used to work in communist Russia. Awesome female James Bond, that woman.

Another extraordinary person is one of the top authorities on Thai massage, owns her own yoga and fitness studio, created an amazing community theater group and was a successful actress. Outstanding.

Oh! And then there is the woman who suffered deep personal tragedy and loss, is hearing impaired and still becomes a shining beacon of positive energy and is a nationally recognized comedian and motivational speaker! I could go on and on (and yes, many of my amazing clients are men - these are just the stories that floated to the top of my mind)

Northwest Glendale Real Estate Hot Sheet
Click here for chart explanation and disclaimer

What brought up this topic? I just closed escrow on 1619 Ard Eevin (a round of cheers, please?) and had the most delightful meeting with the agent who represented the buyer. Most real estate agents were something else before being a Realtor, bu this gal’s story just takes the cake. She was a professional stunt woman and the only female stunt coordinator in the US. She’s fought with Jackie Chan, lept off of tall buildings, crashed every sort of vehicle there is to crash - dudes, she is just awesome! Plus, she is a very good Realtor.

Would you like to meet and connect with people like this? Please join me at my personal social network, www.kendylsopenhouse.ning.com. (click here or the badge on the right sidebar) This is where I am connecting all the extraordinary people in my life. My goal is to create knowledge, networking and possible business amongst all the people that know me.

I absolutely adore my career. There is no better place for someone who finds people endlessly fascinating.

Reporters for mass media outlets (yes, I’m talking about you LA Times) and many of my very educated colleagues can’t seem to analyze stats very well. Or, perhaps, they would rather parrot back the consistent doom and gloom articles they read in said mass media outlets. Either way I’m pretty irritated. BUT - before I take off on this particular tear, let’s do the daily numbers.

Northwest Glendale Real Estate Hot Sheet

Click here for chart explanation and disclaimer

2019 Chilton is a bank foreclosure and a decent buy for someone. The street is very pleasant and the price is decent for the size. Not a discount, mind you, just decent.

1201 Alameda is a LOL (little old lady) home that was one of those “price it really low and get lots of offers” strategies that some foreclosure and REO specialists are using. It is notable that, with all the emphasis on the sky falling, we can still get buying frenzies going. There were lots of offers and the house went for a more respectable $465k. Not a bad price for a small home on a small lot on a busy street.

Do you want to know how far prices have dropped in Northwest Glendale?

Ok. Time for my rantings. The last couple of days have been filled with news media reporting dire statistics showing that the Real Estate market has collapsed and local real estate bloggers blindly parroting back these stories. I am stunned that a “community specialist” would not take a moment to analyze the numbers for her particular marketplace… so I did. It took 2 cups of coffee, ‘cuz I’m no math wiz.

There are 2 main problems with the statistics that I see.

The most obvious is that mass media outlets are always looking at the big picture. They have to. The more responsible stories will tell you what they are looking at; regional LA county, for example, or The Valley, as another. The more salacious of the reports just use the most dramatic numbers and may not specify where. For all we know, when they talk about the drop in value, they are including Riverside and San Bernadino counties where things are truly dire!

The other problem is more insidious. I find that oft times the statistics will compare the real estate sales for a one month period against the sales of the same month, one year later. This will usually yield a very dramatic and compelling number - and that number is total BUNK! Like I said yesterday - with only 3 - 5 homes selling in a given month in our zip codes, just one abnormal high or low sale can completely hijack the stats.

Here are stats that work

I like to think that looking at “rolling 12 month” numbers gives a better picture of what is going on. This relatively simple number doesn’t factor in seasonal changes, but it will do for today.

In 91201 we see a dramatic drop in the number of homes sold, but a pretty modest number in terms of value dropping. Is the average numbers better than the median? Erm, your call. I personally think median is better, but I think it is a matter of point of view.

Here are the numbers for 91202, and they tell pretty much the same story.

What does this mean to me?

Now the fun part is the story people will tell themselves around these numbers. Potential home sellers will use this info to prove to themselves that their price is justified and they just haven’t found the right buyer. Buyers will assume that these numbers do not apply to them.

The truth, of course, is somewhere in between.  Statistics are just an indicator of trend, not a mathmatical formula to assess accurate value.  We are trending downward, just not a dramatic drop.

Sellers - If your home isn’t selling it is automatically too high.  Period.  End of Story.  Don’t argue with me or your valued real estate agent.  Seriously.  The trend is downward, not holding steady, not going up.  Everyday you hang on to your current price is a day that you lose value.  Your individual home is worth what a willing buyer will pay for it, and if you don’t have a willing buyer, guess what?  YOU are the buyer.

Buyers - stopping acting like the sky is falling.  That’s nonsense.  The clouds are getting lower, but the sky is still right where it has always been.  If you need to buy, now is a great time.  There are wonderful individual opportunities in this market.  If the home is right and you are going to stay there a while, who cares if it falls a little more?  If you don’t need to buy, stay home.  There is nothing wrong with waiting for conditions to change.

Northwest Glendale Real Estate Hot Sheet

Click here for chart explanation and disclaimer

All is eerily, strangely, quiet.  844 Grant is a short sale property that finally (finally!) went into escrow.  Now they wait and hope that the bank will actualy close escrow with them.  Good luck!

The LA Times is gleefully reporting that everything is just terrible.  Prices down to 2004 levels, buyers are making aggressively low offers (yep, had one of those yesterday) and foreclosures are up, up, up!

All true.  (surprised you, didn’t I!)  However, it is not true for each individual home, buyer or micro area.  Northwest Glendale has certainly fallen in value, as a whole, but how far depends on how you look at the numbers.

The LA Times and the buyer’s agent who presented the really really low offer yesterday want to look at one month sales in ‘07 compared to the same month in ‘08.  If you read this blog, you know that we have had as few as 3 sales in a given month.  Just one of those sales can be really high or really low and completely whack the average.  If you look at it this way, our home values have fallen by 19% comparing May ‘07 to May ‘08.

It is no wonder that the buyer who tried to buy my seller’s home is completely paralyzed!  They want to buy a home, but they don’t need to buy a home and their agent and the mass media is telling them the sky has absolutely fallen and will continue to fall.  Similarly, the home they want to buy has a seller who wants to sell, but doesn’t need to sell.  This is like oil and water.  They don’t mix - they don’t do business together.

However, business is getting done - there are homes selling across the Southland!  The sweet spot, and I admit it is pretty small, is the place where a committed buyer meets a great house of a committed seller.  These people are aware of the stats and factor them into the decision, but they do not let the bad news completely stop them from doing business.  It happens every day.

**sigh** So what am I saying?  Should these buyers roll over and pay more than they are comfortable paying?  Absolutely not.  I am saying this may not be the right time for them to buy at all.  If you want to buy, ask yourself this question.  “Am I committed to a great deal or a great house?”   If you answer that you must have both, in equal measure - you may not be a good candidate to buy.

Happy Post-Father’s Day to all you Dads out there! I hope you all had a wonderful time spoiling the Dad’s in your family. Here, at Chez Young, we had a totally kick back day that included good food, boring (for me) golf and basketball and a nice walk. Perfect.

Just one price reduction to talk about in Northwest Glendale today. 839 W. Mountain is the landmark black and white house just as Highland turns into Mountain. They reduced after just 18 days from $1,129,000 to $1,050,000. Since this whole deal is contingent on them “purchasing home of choice” I’m guessing they really want the home they’ve chosen! If you’ve been eying this choice home, now is the time to strike.

On Friday Mark Keppel Elementary had their Rockin’ for the Arts concert. I have never seen such an adorable concert in my life! Remember the movie, School of Rock? That’s pretty much what the Burbank Music Academy does for local schools. It’s an arts program and fund raiser all at once. The MKS and PTA organizations are dedicated to making Kepple an arts oriented school (along with Toll and Hoover) and I am in awe of what these dedicated parents are accomplishing. Bravo!

There is nothing more adorable than a little kid with an electric guitar and a “mohawk”

Spencer and I had a blast, hanging out on the lawn and visiting with old friends. Spencer was pretty jazzed to come back to her “old school” as she calls it.

We even saw Miss Betty at the concert. I guess she’s an Ernie Gilbert groupie like me

School of Rock

Yesterday we had a total blast at Artesanos- great food, good drinks and my favorite clients… it was awesome. But first, let’s do the numbers.

Northwest Glendale Real Estate Hot Sheet

Click here for chart explanation and disclaimer

203 Cumberland last tried to sell back in October… for $1,200,000! At $995k they have a tenant occupied, cosmetically original condition home. Many of the mechanics have been upgraded. There are views, but just from the front windows, and a little from the sides. It seems like a high price on paper - but the area is really nice, so we’ll see.

1243 Norton is not really “back”. The listing expired and then got put back, at the very same price. That, my friends, is commitment. Or bullheadedness. Take your pick.

1518 N. Columbus was one of the loveliest homes to come on the market this year. I thought the market wouldn’t bear a sale in this price range and I was delightfully wrong. Congrats!

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Last night I had a bit of a bash for my clients at Artesanos. After all, times are tough. The only reasonable response is to party, right?

Good food by the Los Gringos Taco Cart Guy, a self serve (as in, all you can drink!) Margarita Machine and a delightful summer evening in an amazing setting. If you haven’t been to my friends Callie and Jose’s shop, you gotta go. Click on the link to get an idea of what they’ve created.

My clients, without a doubt, are some of the most interesting and outstanding people on the planet! We had a blast. In all my excitement I forgot about my camera until near the end of the evening, but here’s a shot of the people who shut the party down…