Tue 17 Jun 2008
Now I’m Really Going to be in Trouble…
Posted by Kendyl under Northwest Glendale, Stats and Numbers, Uncategorized
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Northwest Glendale Real Estate Hot Sheet
Click here for chart explanation and disclaimer
All is eerily, strangely, quiet. 844 Grant is a short sale property that finally (finally!) went into escrow. Now they wait and hope that the bank will actualy close escrow with them. Good luck!
The LA Times is gleefully reporting that everything is just terrible. Prices down to 2004 levels, buyers are making aggressively low offers (yep, had one of those yesterday) and foreclosures are up, up, up!
All true. (surprised you, didn’t I!) However, it is not true for each individual home, buyer or micro area. Northwest Glendale has certainly fallen in value, as a whole, but how far depends on how you look at the numbers.
The LA Times and the buyer’s agent who presented the really really low offer yesterday want to look at one month sales in ‘07 compared to the same month in ‘08. If you read this blog, you know that we have had as few as 3 sales in a given month. Just one of those sales can be really high or really low and completely whack the average. If you look at it this way, our home values have fallen by 19% comparing May ‘07 to May ‘08.
It is no wonder that the buyer who tried to buy my seller’s home is completely paralyzed! They want to buy a home, but they don’t need to buy a home and their agent and the mass media is telling them the sky has absolutely fallen and will continue to fall. Similarly, the home they want to buy has a seller who wants to sell, but doesn’t need to sell. This is like oil and water. They don’t mix - they don’t do business together.
However, business is getting done - there are homes selling across the Southland! The sweet spot, and I admit it is pretty small, is the place where a committed buyer meets a great house of a committed seller. These people are aware of the stats and factor them into the decision, but they do not let the bad news completely stop them from doing business. It happens every day.
**sigh** So what am I saying? Should these buyers roll over and pay more than they are comfortable paying? Absolutely not. I am saying this may not be the right time for them to buy at all. If you want to buy, ask yourself this question. “Am I committed to a great deal or a great house?” If you answer that you must have both, in equal measure - you may not be a good candidate to buy.
June 17th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Speaking of the local market, I believe that the prices are dropping because people simply can not afford them. My wife and I were looking to buy back in 2003 but decided to save more for the down payment so that the monthly payments will be more manageable. Little did we know. Recently, after hearing about how it’s such a great time to buy, we started looking again only to find out that the prices are practically double of what they were back in 2003. What gives? Are people really making double of what they used to make in 2003?
June 17th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Great comment, Jack! Affordability is a major factor in our current downturn. Most of the “fast and easy” loans are gone and with them the the buyers who depended on them. However, not every seller is going to need or want to lower their price to be “affordable” to the masses. This is why most of us think we will have a wide “bottom” as sellers hang on to their homes rather than sell for a low price. Things are changing, but with change comes opportunity. Do you need to buy? Find and agent who can bring you opportunity.